UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF VALUE
Fundamental. If you don’t understand this, leave. Of course you’re going to be sure that a 1.25 favorite is going to win, but do the odds offered offer you any value?
Many times we have heard sporadic bettors say “It is impossible for this team to lose the game.” Ok, they may be the clear favorites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds on offer? Betting based on this mental structure is a bit like saying that paying more than its price for a plasma TV is a good value just because you wanted it with all your heart bayar77 rtp. That does not work.
Value is a simple concept, but most of those interested in betting do not understand it, and perhaps we have them to thank, as it is this easy, naive money that diverts the market by providing exceptional opportunities to the minority of bettors. who know how to recognize value.
BASIC MATH
If you have ever used the phrase “I’m just a writer,” maybe you should stop and think about whether betting is your thing. While many bettors find success thanks to their instinct or “feel”, to be successful in the long term you need a viable investment plan and you need to understand what the odds represent in terms of probability.
In short, it’s a numbers game and you need to at least get along with division and multiplication. ith division and multiplication as a minimum.
UNDERSTAND HOW BETTING HOUSES SET ODDS
This depends on the popularity of the event, but in general, bookmakers’ odds will be more of a reflection of what the general public is expected to think rather than the actual probabilities of the outcome. Of course it’s not that simple, but usually bookmakers will set their odds to attract bets on either side of the odds, as well as to balance their liabilities and earn their commission.
This allows astute bettors to find exceptional value opportunities where the general opinion is strongly against them. This also means that a high value can be found in events where greater than usual interest is expected from the casual or sporadic bettor, who, in truth, has no idea in terms of profitable betting strategies. Events like the SuperBowl, tournament finals, and major horse races are prime candidates for these types of opportunities.
BE SKILLED AT DANCING WITH THE UGLIEST
The more I have bet, the more I have ended up choosing the team that no one likes. In fact, the worse the bet looks on paper, the more I like it. It seems counterintuitive, I know, but the less I like a team, the more attractive it seems to me in terms of value. Especially teams that have been doing well for a while but are mired in a few-game losing streak. As the general public flees, their value skyrockets.
IT IS FORBIDDEN TO GET DEPRESSED OR CELEBRATE MORE THAN NECESSARY.
Don’t let a recent bad streak take you out of the game. Get it out of your head, be faithful to your analysis and trust in turning the toast around. Likewise, don’t let a winning streak give you false hope and lead to overconfidence. Again, be faithful to your analysis and continue with your plan.
DON’T TRUST THE ARRIVAL OF THE WHITE BLACKBIRD
Double, multiple, combined bets or whatever you want to call them. Be aware of when to bet on them and when not to. Sure they offer the jackpot, the jackpot of the century, but unless you’ve done your job well and found real value, they’re a terrible way to bet.
Look at it like this: if you made a 4-outcome multiple bet and got the full even money price for odds of 2.00 on each outcome, the odds on a multiple bet would be 16.00. Now let’s move on to a real world example where you are offered 1.90 for “even money” with the house taking 5%. In this case the odds for the same multiple bet would be just 13.00. This would be subtracting almost 19% from the total price of the bet.
But if you have found true value, multiples can give you tremendous value as you multiply their value with each result. The dilemma is, of course, finding authentic value. Everyone who adds a bet to his coupon does so thinking they have found value. Nobody bets on odds that don’t give them value. Here more than ever it is important to find authentic value, otherwise you are only decreasing your chances of success with each new selection added.
LONG TERM MEANING
It would be great to get rich quickly, but that’s not going to happen. Think long term. Set your bankroll and increase the amount bet on each match, and you’ll soon find yourself making a little extra money. And who knows, maybe if you stick with your plan long enough, you can make a living from this.
REASONABLE FUNDS
If you want to make money you need to start betting with funds capable of absorbing losses. If you are going to bet in units, with an average bet amount of 1 unit, I would recommend a minimum of 50 funds.
Okay, maybe you can only afford 1000 euro funds, which means your average unit will be 20. It sounds small, I know you want to be a big shot, but 1000 euro funds can convert faster than you think. appears in a substantial amount with consistent value recognition and a smart investment plan.
Let’s say you bet 200 times a year and, for the sake of argument, you always do so at odds of 1.90. And let’s also say that you have an effectiveness of 54%. Well, following the Kelly fraction as an investment plan, after those 200 bets and depending on how consistent you are in winning, which should prosper with Over time, your funds would reach around 1100.00 euros. Yes, I know what you’re thinking: That’s only 100 euros of profit in one year! Okay, but that’s just betting 200 times with a 2.6% average return.
Now imagine that you make 400 bets a year and are still able to achieve a modest 5% return. Those funds of 1000 euros after 400 bets will reach around 1400 euros; after 5 years, around 5000 euros; and after 10 years, around 30,000 euros with an average unit of 600.
It’s not bad at all. Of course, it’s hard to get to that consistent 5% return, and perhaps the hardest thing is maintaining those funds over the years. But the objective here is to show how starting with modest funds and following the investment plan we can achieve great benefits in the long term.